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When Do Refugees Return Home? Evidence from Syrian Displacement in Mashreq

By: | posted on: Dec 2, 2019

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Date(s) - 12/02/2019
11:30 am - 12:30 pm

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American University – School of International Service

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SIS Global Economy & Development Research Cluster


WASHINGTON, DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

The SIS Global Economy and Development Faculty Research Cluster cordially invites you to

When Do Refugees Return Home? Evidence from Syrian Displacement in Mashreq

by Stefanie Onder (School of International Service, American University)

Abstract: This paper provides an empirical analysis of refugee returns. Since 2011, about 5.6 million Syrians — more than a quarter of the country’s pre-conflict population — have been registered as refugees. By mid-2018, only about 1.8 percent of them returned to Syria spontaneously. We compile a novel data set with administrative data for 2.16 million refugees, household surveys, a conflict-events database, and nightlights data for Syria to analyze the correlates of these returns. A reduction in conflict intensity and an increase in luminosity in Syria strongly increase the likelihood of refugees’ return. However, worse conditions in a refugee’s host country can actually decrease this likelihood.

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