Loading ...America’s Return to Negotiations with Iran — A Bit of Good News?
By: Ghassan Rubeiz / Arab America Contributing Writer
Iran has recently backed away from the brink of a major regional war. The US and Iran are starting formal talks to resolve the tension that has prevailed since President Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement in 2018.
On Saturday, Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy for the Middle East and Ukraine, met Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, in Oman to kick off the negotiations. Both sides reported the meeting went well: after a first set of indirect talks, the adversaries met face-to-face. To Iran’s relief, Washington is willing to discuss the parameters of Tehran’s uranium enrichment program in return for a lifting of sanctions.
These negotiations will require plenty of time, determined leadership, and steady support for the negotiators. Speculations vary on what is motivating the two sides to resolve a 46-year-old conflict, which started with the US hostage crisis in the US embassy in Tehran. But both sides need a diplomatic off-ramp from a mutually destructive war.
The big unknowns are how much Iran is willing to limit its nuclear program, and how much international oversight it will accept. Iran, of course, wants to get rid of devastating economic sanctions, but last year’s presidential elections also showed that Iranians want domestic reform and openness to the West. The new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, is eager to start a new chapter. Iran’s clerical and military hierarchies will try to limit his options. Still, their costly support for proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime has diminished their credibility — not to mention Israel’s assaults on Iran’s military bases.
The United States will insist on full compliance and continued transparency to independent verification schemes. However, Trump’s willingness to suspend sanctions might depend on political factors he does not fully control. He seems confident that he can lift the sanctions on Iran in exchange for a significant slowdown in uranium enrichment, but one wonders about his political prospects once the American public feels the full effects of his political and economic policies. His hands are full: he’s been busy starting a trade war with China; dismantling federal agencies; deporting immigrants; attempting to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war.
In the Middle East, he is launching air attacks on Yemen’s Houthis; supporting Israel’s military operations in Gaza and the West Bank; and influencing and brokering post-Assad talks in Syria and Lebanon. A thaw in relations with Iran might prove easier than many of his other projects. For one thing, no land is in dispute. For another, the Israeli public trusts him, given his unwavering support of Tel Aviv’s interests over the past decade. Finally, the potential benefits are considerable in the Middle East and globally. (The US has promised to include Israel in the negotiations, albeit indirectly; while Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu is fundamentally opposed to talks with Iran, it does not seem that he is currently in a position to derail the negotiations.)
An all-out war between Israel and Iran does not seem likely right now. Trump has taken on too many disruptive projects, both domestically and internationally, and will have to balance them with some peace initiatives. Watch for factors such as Trump’s evolving approval ratings and political capital; Iran’s changing domestic politics; the rise of public opposition to new wars; the fate of Gaza; and the ability of the US administration to contain Netanyahu’s aggressive stance towards Iran.
Ghassan Rubeiz is the former Middle East Secretary of the World Council of Churches. Earlier, he taught psychology and social work in his country of birth, Lebanon, and later in the United States, where he currently lives. He has contributed to political commentary for the past twenty years and delivered occasional public talks on peace, justice, and interfaith subjects. You can reach him at rubeizg@gmail.com
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab America. The reproduction of this article is permissible with proper credit to Arab America and the author.
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