Contemplating Israeli reactions to an Iranian nuclear deal
With Prime Minister Netanyahu’s controversial speech behind us, it seems like a good time to consider how the Israelis might actually react to a nuclear deal with Iran. I am still not convinced we will get such a deal—Iran’s latest statements should reinforce everyone’s skepticism—but the negotiations appear to be making enough progress that we should be thinking through the contingencies if we do get one.
Let’s deal with the elephant in the living room first: it is highly unlikely that Israel will mount a military attack against Iran after a nuclear deal has been struck between Iran and the P5+1 (or in the run-up to one.) As I have laid out elsewhere, Israel does not have a good military option against Iran for both military-technical and political reasons. That’s why Israel has uncharacteristically abstained from a strike, despite repeated threats to do so since the late 1990s.
In this case, the political circumstances would be even worse. Consider the context: Iran will have just signed a deal with the United States and the other great powers agreeing to limits on its nuclear program, accepting more intrusive inspections, and reaffirming that it will not try to build a nuclear weapon. If the Israelis were to attack at that point, an already anti-Israeli international climate would almost certainly turn wholeheartedly against them. Who would support Jerusalem? The Germans, who are the “+1” in the P5+1? The Obama administration, which has made the deal the centerpiece of its Middle East policy? The Sunni Arab states? They will quietly applaud from the sidelines but won’t provide any meaningful assistance. So who?
Source: www.brookings.edu