ISIL, Yemen, Syria: Drought, Climate Change and new Wars
The U.S. intelligence and security communities grapple on a daily basis with the pressing reality that natural resource scarcity and global climate change pose direct threats to U.S. prosperity and national security.
There is, perhaps, no clearer example than the sustained incursion of Chinese navy ships, fishing fleets, and oil rigs over the past five years into the territorial waters of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and other countries of the South China Sea.
China’s claim of a “historical right” to those areas was based on the “nine-dash line” issued in 1947 after the fall of the Kuomintang. That map lay dormant for over 65 years until China’s growing domestic needs for fish protein and hydrocarbons prompted the Chinese government to reassert its claim. The ensuing regional conflicts over the Spratly and Paracel islands, along with maritime disputes with seven countries, illustrate the urgency that prompted President Obama to announce a “Pacific pivot” to Asia to protect Washington’s allies and its strategic interests in the region.
Natural resource scarcity poses a far broader challenge to U.S. prosperity and national security than traditional military threats. Consider also the food crisis that precipitated the Arab Spring uprisings or the drought that has sharpened conflict in Syria. Those challenges are detailed in my recent book, In Pursuit of Prosperity, which examines how both proximate and more distant resource constraints shape and influence our economy and security posture.
Source: www.juancole.com