Cornered by Trump: Israel's No-Cost Occupation is About to Become Painful
Abbas, Trump, Netanyahu. (photo credit: REUTERS)
By: Bishara Bahbah/ Arab America Contributing Writer
During the meeting of the Palestinian Central Committee and following the United States’ recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, Mahmoud Abbas declared, “Today is the day that the Oslo Accords end. Israel killed them. We are an authority without any authority, and an occupation without any cost.”
Abbas has long worked for a two-state solution and the prospects of such a solution have faded into the deep dark space. So, what are the Palestinian Authority’s alternatives?
I can think of seven alternatives that the Palestinian leadership could entertain:
- Forge an Islamic alliance;
- Turn to armed struggle;
- Pursue a one-state solution with Israel;
- Internationalize the diplomatic process;
- Hand the conflict over to Arab countries;
- Abbas resigns and calls for new elections; and
- Dissolve the Palestinian Authority.
Realistically, the first five alternatives will not bring the Palestinians anywhere close to their stated goal of achieving a two-state solution. However, the last two–Abbas resigning and dissolving the Palestinian Authority–could. These last two options might not lead to the creation of a two-state solution, but they will make the Israelis and the Americans pay a heavy price for their belligerent policies.
As far as Israel and Trump are concerned, they will be satisfied as long as the PA exists and the Israeli-Palestinian security cooperation continues–in other words, the continuation of the status quo.
Photo credit: Times of Israel
If Abbas were to step down, which seems unlikely, chaos would ensue in the occupied territories resulting from the jockeying, if not fighting, among those who wish to assume the new Palestinian leadership. This could pose a major threat to the very existence of the Palestinian Authority and could, most likely, hamper if not end the security cooperation between Israel and the Palestinians–outcomes that could appreciably harm and hamper the US and Israel from maintaining the status quo.
If the PA takes the drastic decision to disband itself, go into exile, and hand over control whatever lands the Palestinians think that they control in the occupied territories, then chaos will undoubtedly follow. The Israelis would then be obligated under international law to treat all of the West Bank and Gaza Strip as occupied territory. As occupiers, and without the cover of the Oslo Accords and a Palestinian Authority, the Israelis would be responsible for maintaining security and providing for the needs of the Palestinians under occupation.
That is an outcome that would carry a tremendous financial, diplomatic, and security burden on Israelis. Currently, the PA’s budget is about $4 billion of which a little over $1 billion is covered by tax collection and the rest is secured from international donors. In the absence of the PA, Israel would then become responsible for providing for the Palestinians’ basic needs – education, health care, tax and garbage collection and, more critically, internal security. This would place a tremendous financial burden on the Israelis that the PA was shouldering by having transferred itself into the beggar-in-chief of the world.
Diplomatically, there would be no one to blame but Trump and Netanyahu for the collapse of the Oslo Accords and the Palestinian Authority because they chose to suffocate the Palestinians to the point of despair.
In terms of security, the 70,000 or so Palestinian security officials could very quickly disband with their arms in hand. And, there would no longer be Israeli-Palestinian security cooperation. Israel would be forced to increase its military presence in all parts of the occupied territories. And, Israel could easily become the target of all kind of violent attacks by the uncontrolled Palestinians. Israel will revert to living in terror of daily attacks against its population and Israel’s security and the economy could suffer deeply.
As for the Palestinians, let the whole country burn. They have nothing to lose. They don’t have a state of their own or any incentive to live peacefully with the Israelis.
If Abbas steps down and/or the PA dissolves itself, then the US and Israel’s worst nightmares would become the new reality. At that point, the Israelis and their American friends would have to reach out to the Palestinians to go back to the negotiating table and, only then, will they be forced to provide the Palestinians with serious concessions.
Israel’s occupation will become an occupation with a heavy and painful cost and not an occupation without cost–as is the case under the status quo.
Prof. Bishara Bahbah was a member of the Palestinian delegation to the Peace Talks on Arms Control and Regional Security. He taught at Harvard and was the associate director of its Kennedy School’s Institute for Social and Economic Policy in the Middle East.