The Arab American Vote in Swing States

posted on: Aug 19, 2025

By: Laila Ali / Arab America Contributing Author

In the 2024 election, Arab American voters, particularly in swing-state strongholds like Michigan, emerged as a true swing vote that helped determine the outcome. The race came down to razor-thin margins as candidates won and lost electoral votes, and the Arab American community, historically one of the most overlooked in American political discussions, delivered a decisive rejection to Harris. Their impact highlighted both the community’s potential strength and the fragility of partisan loyalties that had long been assumed.

 The Electoral Impact 

The most notable impact was in Michigan, a historically Democratic state but one the 2024 election cycle reconfigured. Arab and Muslim American communities in cities like Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, and Hamtramck played a highly significant role in that reconfiguration. In Dearborn, Trump won about 42.5% of the vote, Harris about 36.3%, and third-party candidate Jill Stein about 18.4% (in 2020, Biden had won Dearborn with a margin of roughly 3:1).

Cumulatively, Arab American dense precincts provided a major strike against Harris. In Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, and Hamtramck, voters cast an estimated 53,000 votes for Trump (this was about 2/3 of the overall 80,600-vote margin in Michigan). In a state that had been decided by 10,000 votes or fewer in the last three cycles, this proved enough to swing the election.

Drivers of the Arab American Shift 

1. Foreign Policy Discontent 

The primary driver of the shift was dissatisfaction with the status quo on U.S. foreign policy. In particular, many Arab Americans in Dearborn and Hamtramck cited profound disappointment in the Biden–Harris administration’s response to the Israel–Gaza war, which was seen as ineffective at best and complicit at worst. For many Arab American voters who view foreign policy as inseparable from domestic politics and issues of identity and justice, this was a breaking point. 

2. Trump Outreach 

In the context of overall sentiment, Trump and his campaign made some surprising inroads with Arab American voters in 2024. Despite Trump’s controversial record on civil rights and the 2017 travel ban that targeted several Muslim-majority nations, the campaign made a point of directly reaching out to the Arab American community. Trump met with Arab American leaders, spoke at mosques and community centers in Dearborn, and promised to be the candidate to “bring peace in the Middle East.” This kind of direct outreach stood in stark contrast to perceived Democratic neglect of the community. 

3. Third-Party Candidates 

In addition to defecting to Trump, a significant number of Arab American voters chose third-party candidates in 2024. In Dearborn, Stein received nearly 18% of the vote. And national polls found more than half of Muslim American voters supported Stein for president. For many voters, Stein’s position of principled objection to U.S. military intervention overseas and social justice activism offered an attractive alternative to both parties. 

4. Voter Drop-Off 

Finally, the Arab American realignment was not only about changing votes but also about votes not cast. Compared to 2020, Arab American turnout for Harris was sharply down. Analysts estimate that at least 22,000 fewer Arab Americans in cities like Dearborn and Hamtramck cast votes for Democrats in 2024. This represents both active defection to the Republican camp and passive disengagement from the campaign. In a state where the margin was this tight, that level of drop-off was consequential.

Arab American Voters and Swing States 

While the electoral impact was largest in Michigan, The New Arab has shown that Arab American voters can be a swing vote in many key battlegrounds, including Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. And Arab Americans have in fact been voting at high rates, with registration in many states over 90%. The problem for Democrats is not that Arab Americans aren’t registering or voting but that they’re voting less often than they did four years ago. This voter drop-off was not a Michigan-only phenomenon but happened to a significant degree in swing states with Arab American majorities across the board.

Foreign Policy as a Domestic Force

What does the Michigan story mean for future elections? In addition to making the case that Arab American voters in key states represent a powerful swing vote, the Michigan story suggests a valuable lesson for policymakers. Previously, foreign policy was shown to be a domestic political issue in ways not seen for decades. For generations of political strategists in both parties, foreign policy and national security have been issues thought to rank low in voters’ priorities. The near total lack of attention to foreign policy in the debates, which showed a palpable disinterest from moderators and an overriding focus on domestic issues, is a testament to that assumption. 

However, the Arab American realignment calls that assumption into question. For a population with families, partners, and close cultural ties in other countries, policy decisions taken in Washington have direct effects on daily life. If foreign policy becomes a mobilizing issue not just for Arab Americans but also for other diaspora communities, it could rewrite issue hierarchies in U.S. domestic politics. 

Beyond the Two-Party System: Emerging Voter Power

Arab Americans, and by extension other minority groups like South Asian Americans, Black Americans, and Latino Americans, are no longer a static bloc vote. Third-party support, demonstrated by Stein’s strong showing in Dearborn, remains an outlier nationally but a signal that dissatisfied Arab Americans are not averse to alternatives outside the two-party system. If the Democratic and Republican parties cannot evolve to meet Arab American voters where they are, third-party candidates could become regular spoilers in swing states. 

Perhaps most consequential, is the clear message from many voters in Dearborn and Hamtramck that they felt ignored. In swing states like Michigan where both parties pour resources into winning elections, the feeling among many Arab Americans was that both parties took their votes for granted. In an era of razor-thin margins, candidates who overlook Arab American voters weaken their candidacy.

The Future of the Arab American Vote 

In sum, the 2024 election has shown that Arab Americans are neither monolithic nor static. They are a constituency with their own distinctive interests that can shift their vote based on how those interests are represented.They are not reliably Democratic or Republican. They are, in other words, a swing vote. This has major implications for future elections. 

As the Arab American community continues to grow in population, organization, and political engagement across multiple swing states, its impact will only increase. The message for future campaigns is clear: communities that were previously assumed to be securely in one partisan camp are newly empowered swing voters. Far from being a niche community, Arab Americans have become a formidable force in American politics, a force that Democrats and Republicans cannot afford to neglect going forward.

Want more articles like this? Sign up for our e-newsletter!

Check out our blog here!