Why Trump's Ukraine Gambit Will Repeat His Gaza Mistakes

posted on: Dec 3, 2025

By: Ghassan Rubeiz / Arab America Contributing Writer

As the Trump administration pivots from its faltering Gaza ceasefire to an overambitious Ukraine peace proposal, a troubling pattern emerges: the same transactional diplomatic team is applying roughly the same approach to two fundamentally different conflicts.

The initial promise of the Gaza plan seemed compelling: the cessation of heavy bombardment; the return of Israeli hostages alongside a sizable number of Palestinian prisoners; and all backed by President Trump’s stated determination to end the fighting. It seemed a path to Middle East peace was opening, making it deceptively easy to infer that the same approach might also work for Ukraine.

Reality tells a different story. Since the ceasefire agreement was signed on October 9, Israel has violated the ceasefire agreement daily and killed several hundred Palestinians. Ethnic cleansing continues in the West Bank. While Hamas and other Gaza fighters have also violated the truce, their infractions pale in comparison to those of the IDF.

The ceasefire shows mixed signs of advancing to its crucial second phase. As things stand, no Arab country will rush to send troops to stabilize an Israeli-partitioned Gaza. The few nations considering participation in a multinational security force are having second thoughts as they watch Israeli forces’ control over half the enclave while continuing West Bank attacks and escalating ethnic cleansing. No country will easily take on the risk of disarming Hamas while watching Israel expand its occupation.

The Trump administration is now taking this brand of farce to Ukraine. As a US delegation negotiates with President Putin, we may witness the same diplomatic dysfunction unfold in Eastern Europe. Both plans sidestep fundamental problems: Israeli apartheid and an illegal occupation of a sizable portion of Ukraine by a NATO-isolated Russia. Neither peace plan genuinely involves the protagonists, particularly the weaker parties. Palestinians and Ukrainians find themselves spectators to negotiations about their own future. Neither European countries nor Arab states were seriously consulted in drafting these regional plans. Finally, both initiatives focus the spotlight on businessmen like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, treating geopolitical conflicts as if they were real estate issues. 

It has taken only weeks for serious doubts to emerge about the Gaza peace process. The question is no longer whether Trump’s Ukraine proposal will meet the same fate, but how quickly and precisely the pattern will repeat itself. Until American diplomacy addresses root causes rather than symptoms, includes participation of all parties rather than dictating terms, and recognizes that sustainable peace cannot be rushed or imposed, these failures will accumulate. The United States risks cementing its reputation not as a peacemaker but as an inveterate creator of diplomatic adventures, ever-worsening the conflicts it tries to resolve. The world deserves better. So do the Palestinians and Ukrainians whose fates hang in the balance. 

Ghassan Rubeiz is the former Middle East Secretary of the World Council of Churches. Earlier, he taught psychology and social work in his country of birth, Lebanon, and later in the United States, where he currently lives. He has contributed to political commentary for the past twenty years and has delivered occasional public talks on peace, justice, and interfaith topics. You can reach him at rubeizg@gmail.com

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab America. The reproduction of this article is permissible with proper credit to Arab America and the author.

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