Loading ...Will Trump Allow Israel to Attack Iran?
By: Ghassan Rubeiz / Arab America Contributing Writer
Being thoughtless in Ukraine but cunning in the Arab Gulf, President Trump is hopefully being increasingly careful with Iran.
Trump is likely to restrain Israel from attacking Iran, creating unprecedented tension with Prime Minister Netanyahu. Despite Israel’s desire for military action, President Trump is pursuing diplomacy as an alternative to war.
Last week in Rome, the US and Iran met for the fifth time to discuss a nuclear agreement that would effectively curb Iran’s path to developing nuclear weapons in exchange for being relieved of sanctions. Despite significant progress, a critical sticking point remains: Tehran insists on retaining a low-level uranium enrichment program, while Washington, backing Israel’s unrealistic demands, is asking Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear program.
For Iran, complete termination of its nuclear program remains a deal breaker. However, the US position appears increasingly flexible on this critical point—much to Netanyahu’s dismay. The strain between the US and the Israeli leader is evident: Netanyahu was particularly upset when Trump indicated he hadn’t decided whether Iran would be allowed to enrich uranium under a new nuclear deal. Meanwhile, Trump has privately expressed frustration with Netanyahu’s decision to resume military operations in Gaza.
It is arguable that an over-ambitious, militant Israel should be prevented from doing harm to itself and to others; Netanyahu may be underestimating several key warnings against war with Iran. First, Iran’s military preparedness remains strong. Israel has yet to decisively defeat any of Iran’s regional proxies, albeit it has considerably weakened them. Confronting Iran directly would in the long run prove far more challenging and catastrophic for the Jewish state. It would be strategically unwise for Israel to underestimate Iran’s military capabilities, resilience, large population, vast resources, and national pride.
Moreover, Israel is misreading the evolving Arab-Iran relations. Iran remains an integral and central part of the Middle East. Despite the Abraham Accords – formally normalizing Israel’s relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan- the Arab Gulf states and Iran have actually improved relations noticeably in recent years. These monarchies recognize that sustainable regional peace must include Tehran. Excluding the Islamic Republic would perpetuate dangerous sectarian tensions between Sunni and Shiite communities across the Islamic world. Furthermore, an Israeli attack on Iran would likely damage Israel’s carefully cultivated relationships with these Gulf partners.
By going to war with Iran, Israel is actually threatening US interests. Trump appears unlikely to sacrifice his broader Middle East transactional strategy to accommodate Israel’s war plans. Given America’s $36 trillion national debt, the US cannot afford another counterproductive Middle East war. Additionally, his failure in Ukraine-Russia diplomacy makes Middle East success even more crucial for his foreign policy legacy.
Trump’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE demonstrates his commitment to strengthening economic ties with wealthy Gulf states, albeit some of these ties are for his personal and family profit. His administration is reportedly pursuing massive Gulf investment in the US economy and at home. Investments do require regional stability—something that war with Iran would shatter.
Concern about Israel’s growing militancy goes beyond Washington. International opposition to Israel’s conduct in Gaza is growing, particularly among Western allies in Europe and Canada. Netanyahu’s attempts to deflect criticism by accusing European leaders of “encouraging Hamas” only further isolate Israel internationally. Trump must be acutely aware of Israel’s growing isolation and its implications for American interests. Trump has explicitly stated he won’t be “dragged into war with Iran” by Netanyahu, though he’s warned he could “lead the pack” if diplomacy fails.
The president’s pursuit of an Iran nuclear deal represents a surprising reversal from his position in the first administration. Perhaps for the first time in decades, an American president is willing to prioritize broader regional stability over Israeli preferences for military confrontation. If this diplomatic and smart gamble with Iran succeeds, it will positively impact the trajectory of Middle East peace.
Ghassan Rubeiz is the former Middle East Secretary of the World Council of Churches. Earlier, he taught psychology and social work in his country of birth, Lebanon, and later in the United States, where he currently lives. He has contributed to political commentary for the past twenty years and delivered occasional public talks on peace, justice, and interfaith subjects. You can reach him at rubeizg@gmail.com
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab America. The reproduction of this article is permissible with proper credit to Arab America and the author.
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