Why War with Iran Is Not a Historic Opportunity

posted on: Feb 22, 2026

By: Ghassan Rubeiz / Arab America Contributing Writer

Iran’s political reform must occur from within, not induced by Washington or Tel Aviv. The Iranian people For those rushing to war with a weakened Iran, this is not a historic opportunity. US authoritarian foreign policy undervalues diplomacy and does not adjust well to a growing multipolar reality.

This time, a prolonged attack by the US, coordinated with Israel, would be perceived by Tehran as a full Western war to replace the Ayatollah regime — not a limited strike to impose outcome of negotiations. This explains why Iran would react with its full force. In a sense, the coming war, if it occurs, fulfills Israel’s long-standing wish and efforts to see the last challenging regime in the Middle East dealt with by Washington.

Regardless of how it is perceived locally, a US war on Iran would not be justifiable — morally or strategically. Iran is being treated as the source of all evil in the region. Considering how Israel (Iran’s primary enemy) treats Palestinians, Tel Aviv’s record of human rights, regional intervention and defense arsenal are not factored in objectively by Washington. Yet war against Iran seems imminent. And American public reaction to the war in the media seems relatively subdued. An attack is expected any day from now.

Here is why Washington should pull back from the brink:

Iran’s political reform must occur from within, not induced by Washington or Tel Aviv. The Iranian people do not need American bombs to free themselves from the Ayatollah‘s rule. Civil society inside Iran has been growing in resilience and courage. Moreover, external military intervention has often derailed grassroots democratic movements — as it did in Iraq — replacing internal agency with chaos and nationalist backlash. (Hamzawy, Amr & Yerkes, Sarah. “The U.S. Should Not Repeat Its Arab Spring Mistakes.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 18, 2026.)

A war with Iran could ignite regional chaos. Iran’s network — Hezbollah in Lebanon, allied militias in Iraq and Syria, the Houthis in Yemen — could retaliate against American installations across the Arab Gulf and beyond. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of global oil flows, could be disrupted or closed, with dire global consequences. A localized strike could rapidly escalate into a multi-front war with no clear exit. (Al Habtoor Research Centre. “The Implications of a U.S.–Iran War on Regional Stability.” AHRC Policy Brief, 2024.)

A decade of fragile regional diplomacy could collapse. Recent years have seen measurable improvements in Iran’s relations with Gulf Arab neighbors. Destroying Iran’s power without a credible successor arrangement would leave a vacuum no neighboring state is prepared to fill responsibly. (Sarah Shamin, “US–Iran tensions: The diplomatic scramble to prevent a war,” Al Jazeera, January 30, 2026.)

The Muslim world could turn sharply against America. With Israel openly pushing for an American attack, the war would be widely perceived – and rightfully so –  as a joint US-Israeli assault on a Muslim nation. Anti-American sentiment could surge, and recruitment for extremist movements could accelerate. (Newsroom staff, “US attack on Iran would inflame anger across the Muslim world, analysts warn,” Middle East Eye, 2026.)

Relations with Russia and China could deteriorate sharply, with consequences that extend well beyond the Middle East. Both Moscow and Beijing have deep ties with Tehran. A unilateral American and Israeli attack could trigger countermoves in arms supplies, diplomatic coalitions, and cyberspace disruption. More critically, a United States drawn deep into a Middle Eastern war would signal precisely the strategic overextension Beijing has been watching for in its calculations over Taiwan. The consequences in the Pacific could dwarf anything that happens in the Persian Gulf. (Ranjan Solomon, “Iran, China and Russia sign trilateral strategic pact,” Middle East Monitor, January 29, 2026.)

The Palestinian – Israeli conflict could grow more explosive. In Gaza, the West Bank, and Jordan, American military aggression against yet another Muslim-majority state would radicalize political environments and poison whatever remains of prospects for a negotiated settlement. (Saudi FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan, OIC Foreign Ministers Meeting, Istanbul, June 21, 2025, Arab News.)

The American public has no appetite for another war. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq cost over 7,000 American lives and more than $8 trillion. A war against a country three times the size of Iraq, with a far more sophisticated military, would meet strong public resistance from the outset. (No author cited, The Costs of War Project, Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, 2024-25).

The political and financial costs could be severe. Republicans navigating the road to 2028 risk fracturing the coalition that returned Trump to power — particularly among younger voters and working-class communities, who bear the core of the military burden. With national debt approaching $37 trillion, a sustained campaign against Iran could cost trillions more,  thus undermining the fiscal platform that brought this administration to power. (Stavroula Pabst, “The Capitol Hill Republicans against US war with Iran,” Responsible Statecraft, June 21, 2025.)

The case against war with Iran is not about ignoring its authoritarian rule, nuclear program or questionable regional behavior. It is a case for diplomacy and strategic thinking over tactical impulse — for recognizing that military power cannot solve problems that are fundamentally political, cultural, and historical in nature. Patient diplomacy and support for civil society are not weaknesses; they are sound policy. A justifiable war must meet a demanding ethical threshold. This war does not.

The US and Israel have not been reading history to learn lessons. When the bombs fall, history will not forgive the warnings that were dismissed.

Ghassan Rubeiz is the former Middle East Secretary of the World Council of Churches. Earlier, he taught psychology and social work in his country of birth, Lebanon, and later in the United States, where he currently lives. He has contributed to political commentary for the past twenty years and has delivered occasional public talks on peace, justice, and interfaith topics. You can reach him at rubeizg@gmail.com

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Arab America. The reproduction of this article is permissible with proper credit to Arab America and the author.

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