From Gaza Policy to the Ballot: Arab Americans and the 2026 Midterm Elections

posted on: Oct 28, 2026

Photo by Vitalii Abakumov on Unsplash

By: Megan Guzman Abbott / Arab America Contributing Writer

With the November 3 midterm elections approaching, Arab American voters once again face a political dilemma: how to balance concerns about U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East with growing economic and political priorities.

Two years after the war in Gaza, it has led to significant changes in Arab American voting patterns, tracing back to the 2024 presidential election. New polling suggests that support for Democratic candidates has rebounded, but growing opposition to U.S. support for Israel suggests that the country’s relationship with both major political parties is in a grey area. According to a new Arab American Institute (AAI) Yalla Vote tracking poll, released October 27, 59% of likely Arab American voters intend to support Democratic candidates in their districts, compared with 26% who are in favor of Republican candidates. 

A Shift in Political Loyalty

The latest polling shows an important difference between how Arab Americans plan to vote and how they identify politically. Today, 41% of Arab Americans identify as Democrats, which used to be at an extremely low of 23% during the Biden administration. However, 27% are Republicans, and 31% consider themselves independents. This political change began during the 2024 presidential election, when many Arab Americans became frustrated over former President Biden’s way of handling Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, contributing to the large number of Arab Americans turning away from the Democratic Party. Nevertheless, this did not automatically turn into Republican loyalty. Even Arab Americans who voted for Trump in 2024 also shared a dissatisfaction with how the Trump administration is handling Israel and Gaza. 

Gaza Continues to Shape Political Expectations

According to the AAI poll, 90% of people said that the crisis in Gaza would be very important to them when determining their vote in the 2028 presidential election. This includes 94% of Democrats, 95% of independents, and 77% of Republicans. Among Arab American Democrats, 41% would not support a Democratic presidential candidate who refused to end U.S. support for Israel. 

These concerns are also influencing political organizing beyond the traditional two-party system. In 2024, former State Department official Josh Paul and former Department of Education adviser Tariq Habash, both of whom resigned over the Biden administration’s Gaza policy, established A New Policy and a political action committee. The organization supports candidates who advocate for changes to U.S. policy toward Israel and Palestine, emphasizing the need for human rights, international law, and accountability. This May, A New Policy PAC announced endorsements of 25 members of Congress, including Representatives Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, Summer Lee, and Pramila Jayapal, to name a few.  This shows only one of the few ways disagreements over foreign policy, such as over Gaza, are extending beyond public demonstrations and protests, but also into campaign fundraising, endorsements, and electoral organizing.

Michigan Is At Stake: Updates on El-Sayed

One of the most closely watched examples of these political tensions is in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican former Representative Mike Rogers.

El-Sayed, who has both Egyptian parents and is a public health official, has been an outspoken critic of U.S. support for Israel’s military in Gaza. His campaign has also emphasized domestic concerns, including healthcare costs and economic inequality. The campaign has also attracted a lot of attention from pro-Israel political organizations such as people from AIPAC’s network and has spent heavily in Michigan’s Senate contest.

So far, just this last week, Former President Barack Obama joined El-Sayed and Michigan nominee Jocelyn Benson at a Detroit rally with more than 4,300 people. Obama defended El-Sayed against attacks about his name and religion, and emphasized El-Sayed’s commitment to improving healthcare and economic affordability. 

“Abdul is as Michigan as it gets.”

“This election is our last, best chance to at least rein in some of the foolishness of this administration. It is the circuit breaker in the system. We gotta flip that circuit breaker.”

On October 26-27, Rebellion PAC released an ad connecting grocery costs to the American military, emphasizing support for Israel. The advertisement attracted much criticism and included allegations of antisemitic rhetoric. El-Sayed campaign stated that it had no affiliation with the ad, while the PAC’s founder defended it.

Recent Michigan Senate polling also reflects current estimated standings for each runner: An InsiderAdvantage survey conducted October 21–22 found 47% support for El-Sayed and 46% for Rogers.

For Arab American voters, particularly in Michigan, the Senate race brings several national conversations together: the future of U.S. policy toward Israel and Gaza, religious representation in U.S. politics, and the importance of affordability and economic security. Let’s see what next Tuesday brings us.

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