How the Russia-Ukraine War Affects the Arab World
By: Claire Boyle / Arab America Contributing Writer
Introduction:
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine to allegedly recognize the separatist pro-Russian Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. However, many international relations experts believe that by invading Ukraine, Russia is attempting to install a pro-Russian president in Ukraine who will be obedient to the wishes of the Kremlin and President Vladimir Putin. So, what does this invasion mean for the entire world? Are we entering a new Cold War with Russia, and also how will the Russia-Ukraine War affect the Arab World?
This article will attempt to give some background on the conflict as it is a complicated situation and overview how the war might affect the Arab World, especially in terms of resources and alliances.
Some Background on the Russian-Ukrainian War:
In an attempt to provide some history and background on the Russia-Ukraine War of 2022, we must first go back to February 2014 in the Ukrainian regions of Donbas and Crimea. However, some political scientists believe this conflict goes back further to the Cold War when Ukraine was part of the United Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). Despite the attempt by Russia to annex Crimea, the region is still internationally-recognized as belonging to Ukraine. The former Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych desired stronger pro-Russian ties by being incorporated into the Eurasian Economic Union as opposed to what the Ukrainian people wanted which was a closer allegiance to the European Union (EU) with the European Union—Ukraine Association Agreement. These anti-EU economic policies by Yanukovych caused massive protests in Ukraine which are now known as “Euromaidan.”
After the Euromaidan protests, the Ukrainian people started the “Revolution of Dignity which culminated in the ousting of the elected president, Yanukovych, and that pro-Russia Ukrainian government was overthrown.” These events eventually led to the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014. In 2019, Ukraine elected its pro-Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who desires the country to be aligned with the West, NATO, and the United States. The recent recognition of the pro-Russian separatist regions in Ukraine of Donbas and Luhansk by the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, in February 2022 is how we got to where we are today. On Thursday, February 24, 2022, the Russian military launched a full-scale invasion against Ukraine, and there is currently war in Europe.
So, how does the Russia-Ukraine War of 2022 affect the Arab World?
Russia-Ukraine War of 2022—How Resources Will be Affected in the Arab World:
The Russia-Ukrainian War of 2022 has many implications for the Arab World, specifically in relation to the delivery of supplies, resources, alliances, and international relations between the region and the two belligerent nations of Russia and Ukraine.
In the Arab World, the most pressing concern is the “importation of wheat, cereals, and resources for energy with oil.” In a recent analytical article, the Wilson Center, a Washington, DC-based think tank, has noted that “Ukraine and Russia are among the world’s top wheat exporters, and they represent about 29% of the global supply.” The concern is that the war will prevent or stop altogether the exports of wheat which many Arab World countries depend on especially in light of many that are dealing with their own food insecurity challenges.
It is rumored that “Egypt, Lebanon, Yemen, Libya, and Morocco are facing an impending “bread” crisis as the wheat export prices continue to surge due to the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict.” Algeria has begun to look elsewhere for wheat supplies, and they are now pursuing economic relations with Romania.
Another resource concern for the Arab World is that of oil. The Gulf countries, specifically, through the “Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are trying to maintain balanced relations with major world powers, but OPEC could be problematic for these nations as they have maintained good relations with Russia.” This relationship could prove problematic again for the delivery and obtainment of oil, especially with the increased sanctions against Russia from the West.
In a world still grappling with the effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic, the delivery of key resources is integral to worldwide health, security and safety, so this conflict is definitely making many uneasy for other reasons besides the potential for a full-scale war in Europe as well.
Russia-Ukraine War: How Alliances Will Affect the Arab World:
Finally, the other issue that the Arab World could face is one relating to alliances. For a long time, Syria’s government, the Bashar al-Assad regime, has been allied with Russia. Most recently, “Syria’s foreign minister came out in support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine saying they are in favor for recognizing the pro-Russian, but Ukrainian-held separatist states of Donetsk and Luhansk.”
-As of March 6, 2022, it has been reported that “Russia is offering the equivalent of $300 to Syrian mercenary soldiers to engage in urban combat in the war,” so this development further complicates the situation for the Arab World given that the region at least in the context of this one country is now involved in the war.
However, there are other Arab World countries that have come out in support of Ukraine:
-Libya’s “foreign minister called [Russia’s invasion], a violation of international law.”
-Qatar is “calling for restraint on both sides and was briefed by the Ukrainian president on current developments.”
-Iraq is urging for safety measures on the ground “and to protect Iraqi university students who are trying to flee the country.”
-Lebanon “has condemned the invasion of Ukrainian territory and is calling on Russia to halt its military operations.”
-The Arab League has also agreed to a special meeting “to address the Russia-Ukraine War,” as has the United Nations.
Conclusion:
So, what does this all mean for Ukraine, Russia, the Arab World, and perhaps even the entire globe? The immediate concern for the Arab World is that the declining delivery of resources could continually exacerbate food insecurity by the rising wheat prices which could launch a “bread crisis,” and combined with the internal issues of drought and mismanagement of resources, the Russian-Ukrainian War could have a stinging impact upon Arab countries due to their reliance upon these exports from both countries.
Additionally, another issue relates to a potential crisis in oil being that prices are also going up due to the invasion. Final concerns include the rising rates of regional hunger and increased conflict due to limited resources.
Only time will tell what Russia’s endgame is in invading Ukraine, but as with any conflict, the immediate hope is that it will end quickly with the smallest loss of life possible and that both sides will eventually reach for peace and the termination of hostilities.
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