Prime Minister-Designate Steps Down in Lebanon - What's Next?
By: Lindsey Penn/Arab America Contributing Writer
After the devastating blast in Beirut on August 4, 2020, Lebanon’s Prime Minister, Hassan Diab, resigned. The blast killed nearly 200 people, wounded thousands, and left hundreds of thousands without homes. For many, the blast was a tipping point. The government was corrupt, and even before the blast happened, Lebanon’s economy was in crisis with rising inflation and poverty. This article will give you the background for the current political events, and explore what it means for Lebanon.
Prime Minister Hassan Diab Resigns
After the blast, many people took to the streets to protest the government’s corruption and lack of helping the economy. On August 10, 2020, Prime Minister Diab officially resigned from Lebanon’s Parliament. This move followed the resignation of three of Diab’s cabinet members and seven members of the Lebanese Parliament. Without Diab’s resignation, a new election would not have been scheduled. In his resignation speech, he said that he is resigning in order to stand with his people. He blames corruption and his opponents from keeping him from doing his duty. According to Lebanon’s constitution, this does not mean a new election. The President (currently Michel Aoun), appoints the new cabinet after discussing with members of Parliament. However, Diab will continue to act as the Prime Minister of Lebanon until the new prime minister is appointed.
The New Prime Minister
On August 31, 2020, the Lebanese Parliament came to a decision to appoint Mustapha Adib as the new Prime Minister. Adib, the former ambassador to Germany, had support from the Sunni political leaders, the Shiite Amal and Hezbollah, and the Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). From outside of Lebanon, France also supported him. The decision to appoint a new prime minister was quick, mainly because many international institutions and other countries began pressuring the Lebanese Parliament. For example, France’s President, Emmanuel Macron, threatened to impose sanctions on Lebanon if the government didn’t come to a decision and create real reforms.
It is important to note, however, that many Lebanese people have little faith in Mustapha Adib.
Meanwhile, Adib gave an acceptance speech. His speech emphasized his hope to bring about new, positive changes to Lebanon. He also said that his cabinet will include people who are qualified and experienced. Then, the government can begin to implement not just any reforms, but reforms that will actually work.
It is important to note, however, that many Lebanese people have little faith in Mustapha Adib. Instead of believing that he will make a positive change and uplift the country, many think that he is the same regime but under a new name. Adib’s critics mention his work with ex-prime minister Najib Mikati, who is Lebanon’s richest man. Mikati was also charged with financial corruption in 2019.
Jean AbiNader, of the Washington DC area, like many other Lebanese people, was skeptical of Adib’s ability to make a change. “Adib would have been subject to the same restrictions as Diab… the oligarchy was showing one face to the international community and another to the Lebanese. Most of the reforms would have required either Parliamentary approval or executive actions, both of which could be manipulated to prevent serious reforms and provided excuses for continued obstructions,” AbiNader said.
Adib Steps Down
On Saturday (September 26), Adib stepped down from the role of Prime Minister. This was a result of not being able to form a cabinet. Although nothing has been officially confirmed, there are reports that say the source of the problem was from the Shia parties (Amal and Hezbollah) wanting to control the finance ministry by appointing their own ministers.
Adib, in his speech, said he refused to have a cabinet that wouldn’t commit to reforms, and would most likely fail.
As the stand-in prime minister, he and his cabinet do not have the political support to pursue any important and meaningful initiatives.
For many, this resignation did not come as a surprise. As’ad AbuKhalil, a professor in the Department of Politics at the Californian State University-Stanislaus, is one of them. “[H]e was merely a front for the “club” of former prime ministers who serve as mere clients of the Saudi regime in Lebanon…. Adib was merely serving those who appointed him and refused to speak to adversaries of the Saudi plot in Lebanon. That would not work: You can’t ignore the leaders of the two largest parliamentary blocs and expect to succeed in forming a government”, says AbuKhalil.
What’s Next?
For the time being, Diab is the stand-in prime minister with his cabinet. This situation is not ideal, though. As the stand-in prime minister, he and his cabinet do not have the political support to pursue any important and meaningful initiatives. Until there is a new prime minister, the government is basically in limbo – they could become passive and essentially just drift.
The Shia parties still have most of the political control, and in sectors that are crucial, like security and finance. Their control of the important sectors gives them an advantage, especially since the Sunni counterpart is not as powerful. Those who do not support the Shia parties, criticize them by saying that even in an economic downturn and the aftermath of a destructive blast, they are still only interested in maintaining their power.
The search for a new prime minister could take months. In the wake of a national disaster, now is not the time to be dragging their feet. People need aid and support, whether that is monetary or healthcare or other relief. For now, the International Monetary Fund and other relief organizations are struggling to provide care packages because of the government, preventing people from receiving the care they need. Certainly, this indecision and slow movement does not benefit the people, nor does it help the Lebanese economy recover from the blast as well as the previous economic downturn.
Without outside pressure in the form of sanctions and freezing the politicians’ assets abroad, many are doubtful that there will be change. . As AbuKhalil points out, though, “Macron extended his deadline (something smacking of colonial dictates when you hear of deadlines from Western powers to developing countries) but [won’t] be able to impose his will because he now is implementing the wishes [of] the US-Saudi-Israeli alliance. More of the same in Lebanon, and more economic hardship for the people all in the hope that US can bring Lebanon to its knees”.
As for the future of Lebanon, AbuKhalil and AbiNader are not optimistic. “Lebanon is in a death spiral. Calling for early elections is a ruse, only Hezbollah/Amal and FPM, the odd couple, are organized sufficiently to win any elections which makes that a sham proposal… the negative scenarios are more likely. The banking sector continues to resist reform; currency declines; hyperinflation deprives Lebanese of their way of life; makes like unbearable for the refugees; and undermines the Lebanese Armed Forces who no longer have money to feed their families, educate their children, and have sufficient health care. While the international community will continue humanitarian aid, desperate needs in rebuilding the infrastructure which was in bad shape even before the port explosions, will not be able to [move] forward, creating opportunities for China and Russia to feign offers of assistance that will not have substance but helps the enemies of change stay in power”, AbiNader predicts.
As the Lebanese people are suffering, the government has a decision to make. Will they resolve to fix Lebanon’s problems, or continue on the path of economic and political destruction?
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